Cameroon: the challenges of local production in a context of strong dependence on imported basic products, and imposed by globalization.

Par malumiereetmonsalut Le 03/05/2024 à 00:00 0

Dossier

Coffee cherry. Photo/Emmanuel Walusimbi/theokwelians.com

Despite significant economic potential and measures aimed at increasing cultivable areas, the import bill for consumer products in Cameroon continues to grow. Insufficient yields as well as technological delays, the poor quality of road infrastructure for transporting products from the countryside to the cities among many other constraints, do not promote better production necessary for the reduction of poverty and notably the massive exodus of a fraction of the predominantly young population from rural areas to urban areas, thus increasing precariousness, urban disorder and a strong dependence on products from outside, more financially accessible and more competitive on the international market than those locally produced. Indeed, in addition to the quality of the supply which is insufficient and for some unsatisfactory from a quality point of view, Africa and Cameroon in particular is a satisfactory consumer market expected to double by 2050 to the great delight of countries exporting necessary products in a continent which is trying as best it can to optimize its growth through plans to strengthen local production which is largely insufficient.

Although it has made it possible to respond to the problems of insufficient products needed in the daily lives of Cameroonians, the liberalization of trade continues to accentuate the degree of dependence of this country on imports of consumer products from outside, taking advantage in particular critical periods generated in part by the uncertainties of a constantly changing world where the most economically fragile countries are more affected by conflicts and crises experienced and orchestrated by the richest countries.

Weak economies and heavy dependence on imports

International relations are characterized by interdependencies of great utility for economies. No country can do without imports and exports. The problem is therefore not at the level of trade but of the deficit in trade balances and external debts. When, because of a given situation, a State becomes dependent on the outside to the point of no longer even being able to decide for itself because of commercial exchanges which have become reasons for influence and submission of poorer States to those considered richer there is reason to be worried.

The state of dependence of a State or a continent on another or on the rest of the world is always linked to the weakness of its economy. For example, the fact of representing only 2% of world trade does not give any decision-making power. In addition, the high rate of poverty which results in both legal and illegal migratory phenomena for a continent which cannot do without its human capital but which struggles to reduce the number of departures due to cyclical and systemic difficulties characterized by acts of corruption and embezzlement which does not bode well for the future. To this must be added climatic problems and long periods of drought in places without however forgetting to mention the consequences that an economic crisis in an economic area bringing together the main players in global trade could have on poor countries generally more vulnerable than the rich countries.

One cannot get into debt when you are not experiencing difficulties. Indeed, if certain economies manage to recover after aid to the point of becoming great economic powers on the same level as those who helped them in the past (we have the example of the Marshall plan), others on the other hand are experiencing enormous difficulties which are reflected in the quality of their trade balance.

The bankruptcy of many Cameroonian companies in the 1980s forced the country to increase its imports. Added to the rise in prices at the national level was the trade balance deficit and the loss of public revenue. After this episode, which spanned around twenty years, followed the energy and food crisis which affected the entire world for three years in Europe and the United States and eight years in Africa. This situation led Cameroon to exempt imported consumer products from taxes, resulting in a shortfall of 443 billion CFA francs on the State budget between 2008 and 2015 (INS-2017).

More recently, the Covid-19 pandemic having required financing offered by the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as well as the Russo-Ukrainian war have demonstrated the distressing proportions of a dependence which has become for some a pretext to justify charitable acts which in reality are not because they do not go beyond the logic of the give-and-give credo of international relations.

This state of dependence which has enormously affected Africans and Cameroonians in particular has brought to the surface the thorny question of self-sufficiency lost in the 1980s following economic problems having caused flows of imports, particularly consumer products in the point where Africans in the majority and Cameroonians in particular consume even more of what they do not produce and export less of what they produce and they consume less because of low yields, insufficient financial and technological means, small farms assimilated to subsistence agriculture instead of being considered as real business opportunities to support in the march towards industrialization or re-industrialization.

Trade balance deficit and strong dependence on hydrocarbons

On the basis that no country can be self-sufficient and needs interdependencies to be able to meet its multiple needs at the local level as much as possible, international trade is very useful. The problem therefore does not lie in sourcing from outside or making imports in order to compensate for local production or meet increasingly growing demands but in questioning the consequences of a trade balance constantly in deficit in the growth of a country. Indeed, while some are progressing thanks to a surplus trade balance on almost all product categories, others on the other hand and for several reasons including low local production, are more forced to import than to export to the point of knowing constant deficits in their trade balance.

According to the report on Cameroon's foreign trade published in 2022 by the National Institute of Statistics (INS), In 2017 the volume of imports of Cameroon were 7,978 tons for a value of 3,054 billion CFA francs, while the volume of exports namely 6507 tons was worth 1882 billion. A deficit of -1,172 billion CFA francs.

In 2018, the volume of imports was 8,173 tons for a value of 3,405 billion CFA francs, while the volume of exports was 6,730 tons for a value of 2,112 billion CFA francs i.e. a deficit of -1293 billion CFA francs.

In 2019, the volume of imports was 10,011 tons, for a value of 3,857 billion CFA francs. While the volume of exports was 7702 tons, for a value of 2393 billion CFA francs. A deficit of -1,464 billion CFA francs.

At the end of 2020, the volume of imports from Cameroon was 8,953 tons for a value of 3,179 billion F CFA while exports were 7,368 tons for a value of 1,803 billion F CFA. A trade balance deficit estimated at -1,375 billion CFA francs.

In 2021, the volume of imports was 10,352 tons for a value of 3,871 billion F CFA while the quantity of exports was 7,751 tons for a value of 2,394 billion F CFA. That is to say a deficit of -1,478 billion CFA francs.

In 2022, the quantity of imports amounted to 9,517 tons for a value of 4,911 billion CFA francs. The volume of exports was 8,205 tons for a value of 3,483 billion CFA francs. That is to say a deficit of -1,428 billion CFA francs. Will Cameroon begin to reverse this trend in 2024?

Even if the second quarter of 2023 was marked according to the National Institute of Statistics by GDP growth of 3.9%, doubt persists. Despite notable efforts on a very small scale, nothing suggests that in the next seven years, Cameroon will be less dependent on the volume of its imports, the values of which in terms of prices have always been higher than those of its exports. Furthermore, for a country moving towards its emergence, there are, among many others, enormous needs in terms of machines and cutting-edge technologies which will always require colossal financing for a country which aims for food self-sufficiency and a balance commercial surplus thanks in particular to a better contribution from other sectors of activity to no longer depend heavily on exports of crude oil and natural gas because in fact, excluding crude oil and natural gas, the deficit is even more critical. And the 2022 report on Cameroon's foreign trade demonstrates this: “Excluding crude oil, the trade balance is becoming more and more negative: the deficit amounts to 2943 billion FCFA, an increase of 496 billion FCFA (20%) compared to for the year 2021. If we also exclude natural gas, the deficit worsens further, reaching 3,495 billion FCFA, an increase of 846 billion (32%) more compared to the year 2021.

It should be noted that in view of this INS report, it is at the level of trade in hydrocarbons (crude oil and natural gas) that the trade balance is in surplus. Which means that, as the report on Cameroon's foreign trade in 2022 demonstrates, without hydrocarbon exports, the trade balance would be dramatic. From 2017 to 2022, they (hydrocarbon exports) have always constituted between 50 and 70% of the volume of exports in terms of tons and values in terms of billions of CFA francs. Hydrocarbon trade is therefore essential in the country's economic growth to the point where it is difficult to imagine growth or emergence without hydrocarbon exports given the delays in several other equally important economic sectors.

Also read : The question of food autonomy in rice and in wheat in Cameroon and in Africa

Rice cost the Cameroonian State 207.974 billion CFA francs for an imported quantity estimated at 776,601 tons in 2021 compared to 591,597 tons worth 159.871 billion in 2020. Imports increased by 10% to reach 845,000 tons in 2022 fault of local demand which always exceeds national production.

During the first half of 2023, Cameroon imported 407,400 tons of rice worth 128.4 billion CFA francs; that is to say 24% more compared to the same period of the previous year.

In 2024, the integrated agropastoral and fisheries import-substitution plan (Piisah) projects a deficit of more than 500,000 T in 2024 (EcoMatin).

Wheat and meslin or wheat flour has cost to Cameroon 182.748 billion for 966,397 tons imported. Wheat imports also experienced an increase of around 111,555 tons (13%) in 2021 compared to 2020. According to the National Institute of Statistics, Cameroon imported 920,400 tons during the year 2022; despite a drop of 41,000 tons compared to the previous year, the concern remains (investincameroon). In the first half of 2023, Cameroon imported wheat from France to the tune of 292 millions of Euros, an increase of 5 million Euros compared to the previous operation at the same period. (financialafrik.com)

But although insufficient, significant efforts are notable at the level of refined oils and at the level of corn production.

Imports of refined oils of which local production amounted to 180,337 tons in November 2022 increased by 23,119 tons (39.7%). We thus went from 58,164 tons in 2020 to 81,281 tons in 2021 for an envelope of 51.819 billion CFA francs. The same cannot be said for palm oil production which, after several years of low imports, gives worrying figures. Indeed, the largest volume of imports was made in 2022, i.e. 150,000 tons; the same quantity in the first half of 2023 (EcoMatin).

This change is explained by a drop in local production which, although between 350,000 tons and 400,000 tons, is struggling to satisfy the increasingly growing demand from both households and refiners or processors of this raw material into refined oils and soaps.

Corn imports in 2021 amount to 34,082 tons for a value of 6.482 billion CFA francs compared to 19,615 tons for a value of 3.066 billion in 2020, an increase of 73.8% (14,467 tons). Furthermore, as the African Economic Information Agency (Ecofin) reports to us, Cameroon, against all logic, exported on average 500,000 tons of corn from its production to CEMAC countries each year. Efforts have therefore been made to reduce the extent of the import of this product in the trade balance deficit.

The improvement in this worrying trend began with the inauguration of a subsidiary of the Société Anonyme des Boissons du Cameroun (SABC) called the Compagnie Fermière du Cameroun (CFC) on November 5, 2021 in Mbankomo (1/4 District of the Méfou-et-Akono department in the Center-Cameroon Region).

This new farming company allowed a drop in imports of 65.5% to 11,684 tons compared to 33,823 tons over the same period the previous year (investincameroun). According to the Ministry of the Economy, Planning and Territorial Development (MINEPAT), the bill for these imports has almost been divided by three from 6.4 billion FCFA to 2.5 billion FCFA Between 2022 and 2023.

These statistics provided mainly by the National Institute of Statistics show that local demand is as growing as dependence on massive imports which are weakening Cameroon's trade balance. If it has always been this way, the crisis in the North-West and South-West regions has contributed to the worsening of this situation. The export agriculture sector was heavily impacted but still continued as best it could over the years, gradually returning to growth after long periods of recession. The latest period of growth according to the INS in its report on the national accounts would be that of the last two quarters of the year 2023 which were punctuated by a revival of growth.

Subsistence agriculture: A path towards food self-sufficiency?

The search for strategies to respond to the concerns of Cameroonians cannot be done without taking into account demographic, infrastructural, technical and financial factors.

Just like the majority of African countries, agriculture is a key sector of the Cameroonian economy. If the public authorities encourage working the land it is certainly because they know that it is also through it that emergence can be achievable. But we must still give ourselves the means and not the least. If we just have to stop at the level of small farms we must question the quality of the roads and what is implemented to support small farmers in their activities which should not only stop at the subsistence level but be more of a factor of growth or emergence.

If Cameroon needs to develop thanks to its agriculture, it should already be able to attract local labour because contrary to what some might think, Cameroonians love all work and especially agricultural work. It is the lack of financial attractiveness of this sector which sometimes gives the impression that they do not like it.

Can we describe as lazy an individual who chooses to go to Europe despite all the related difficulties, and who starts doing odd jobs, including work on farms?

If the agricultural sector allowed millions of Cameroonians to live decently, the rate of illegal immigration would be further reduced. The dynamism of producers and even resellers is undermined by problems with road infrastructure and the cost of transport in isolated localities. But as they have become accustomed to experiencing these constraints on a daily basis, they show resilience by working despite the difficulties.

If we just have to do Agriculture to survive, we should therefore give land to all Cameroonians and start financing and supervising their production. But if we must see subsistence agriculture as an engine of growth as is currently the case, we must invest more in order to have more yield by encouraging planters to produce more and to produce better while multiplying employment opportunities in terms of hundreds of thousands or even millions of skilled or unskilled workers because illegal migration is partly justified by the growing demand in the West for unskilled and low-paid labour.

In a context where even some public sector employees have difficulty making ends meet, encouraging agriculture is beneficial but without significant support measures is a precarious solution in the Cameroonian context.

The producer needs to be financed, to be supported by specialists in agronomy, to be sure of being able to permanently sell his products, and not to be hampered in his dynamism by the poor quality of road infrastructure. Even if according to the latest figures published in 2023 by the National Institute of Statistics, food crops contribute enormously to the country's growth, making them the best lever for growth in the primary sector, complementary policies are necessary to improve these results; notably facilitate access to land, legalize the status of the farmer, start agropoles (economic development pole which brings together companies, research centres, training organizations, food processing and distribution), strict control prices and quality in all markets, the improvement of product transport routes, the supply of quality seeds, and the protection of plantations exposed to pachyderms among many others.

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